Toward the end of the first Trump administration, when the world was in the throes of the COVID pandemic and the United States was distracted by its own electoral processes, a horrific war broke out in the Tigray region of Ethiopia. Now, at the chaotic beginning of the second Trump term, the region may be on the cusp of war again. The latest reports of military mobilizations hauntingly echo the days leading up to the conflict in 2020. How the United States responds to the unfolding developments in the Horn of Africa may help clarify how “America-first transactionalism” will work in practice.
Today, Tigray is at risk of bearing the brunt of a localized power struggle and two sets of nested proxy conflicts. Internal tensions between the leadership of the region’s interim administration, appointed after the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA) in 2022, and its predecessor have escalated dramatically, a dynamic worsened by the failure to ensure implementation of all aspects of the COHA. Prominent Ethiopians insist that those tensions have been stoked by Eritrea, which sent military forces into Tigray during the last round of conflict. At that time, Eritrea was working with the Ethiopian government to defeat the Tigrayans, but that marriage of convenience has long since fallen apart, and both countries have returned to hostile rhetoric, rehashing bitter history, and flirtations with each other’s opponents. Read more