More than two years have passed since the Tigray war ended with the signing of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA), commonly referred to as the Pretoria Agreement. While neither Ethiopia nor Eritrea publicly declared outright victory, the concept of victory held different meanings for each country.
For Ethiopia, triumph was framed around the defeat of what it labeled as Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) forces. For Eritrea, success was measured by the weakening of the TPLF and the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), as well as the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF).
According to Alex de Waal, Professor and Executive Director of the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki considered the TPLF and the ENDF as the two main obstacles to his influence over Ethiopia. As de Waal explains, “His two biggest fears are the Ethiopian army and the TPLF,” who until the war ended in November 2022 were “locked in mutual annihilation.” The Tigray war provided Isaias with the opportunity to weaken the TPLF and indirectly neutralize the ENDF—a strategy he successfully executed. Read more…