PM Abiy Ahmed and President Isaias Afwerki exchanging pleasantries with Debretsion Gebremichael, then deputy president of Tigray regional state during the reopening of Bure and Zalambesa border crossings in September 2018 (Photo: Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia)
Addis Abeba – In recent weeks, speculation about an imminent war in Northern Ethiopia and Eritrea has multiplied. Many argue that another large-scale conflict is inevitable. While future escalation cannot be ruled out entirely, a full-blown war in the immediate term remains unlikely.
https://googleads.g.doubleclick.net/pagead/ads?gdpr=0&us_privacy=1—&gpp_sid=-1&client=ca-pub-3273908333816206&output=html&h=280&adk=3343016698&adf=2718975016&w=780&fwrn=4&fwrnh=100&lmt=1759235869&num_ads=1&rafmt=1&armr=3&sem=mc&pwprc=2662236072&ad_type=text_image&format=780×280&url=https%3A%2F%2Faddisstandard.com%2Fopinion-why-war-in-northern-ethiopia-and-eritrea-is-unlikely-for-now%2F&fwr=0&pra=3&rh=195&rw=779&rpe=1&resp_fmts=3&wgl=1&fa=27&uach=WyJXaW5kb3dzIiwiMTkuMC4wIiwieDg2IiwiIiwiMTQwLjAuNzMzOS4xMjgiLG51bGwsMCxudWxsLCI2NCIsW1siQ2hyb21pdW0iLCIxNDAuMC43MzM5LjEyOCJdLFsiTm90PUE_QnJhbmQiLCIyNC4wLjAuMCJdLFsiR29vZ2xlIENocm9tZSIsIjE0MC4wLjczMzkuMTI4Il1dLDBd&abgtt=9&dt=1759235869017&bpp=2&bdt=6409&idt=-M&shv=r20250929&mjsv=m202509230101&ptt=9&saldr=aa&abxe=1&cookie=ID%3De5d99796b937492c%3AT%3D1755180686%3ART%3D1759230276%3AS%3DALNI_MZhPSCyjsUOT_hz7PdcNoAoqYZlMQ&gpic=UID%3D0000125303f9575e%3AT%3D1755180686%3ART%3D1759230276%3AS%3DALNI_MbXIih-xn-246_IkcAyKerUub4mcw&eo_id_str=ID%3Df98a762fce1dc8b5%3AT%3D1755180686%3ART%3D1759230276%3AS%3DAA-Afja3nzlD-ZnXNR0Ylkt_MYUl&prev_fmts=0x0&nras=2&correlator=1650869900834&frm=20&pv=1&u_tz=180&u_his=1&u_h=720&u_w=1280&u_ah=672&u_aw=1280&u_cd=24&u_sd=1.5&dmc=8&adx=47&ady=1414&biw=1265&bih=551&scr_x=0&scr_y=0&eid=42532242%2C95372194%2C95344789&oid=2&pvsid=8177116028221896&tmod=823997544&uas=0&nvt=1&fc=384&brdim=0%2C0%2C0%2C0%2C1280%2C0%2C1280%2C672%2C1280%2C551&vis=1&rsz=%7C%7Cs%7C&abl=NS&fu=128&bc=31&bz=1&td=1&tdf=2&psd=W251bGwsbnVsbCxudWxsLDFd&nt=1&pgls=CAEaBTYuOC4y&ifi=3&uci=a!3&btvi=1&fsb=1&dtd=626
First, the Ethiopian government simply lacks the military bandwidth to open another front in the north. The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) is already stretched thin in Amhara and Oromia, where it doesn’t succeed to re-establish control even with the support of local militias. Launching an additional campaign to capture Assab – or and even more go further into Eritrea to try to topple Issayas, which would afterwards need to sustain an armed occupation of at least part of Eritrea – would be militarily thoughtless. Even during the 2000 conflict, when Ethiopia was almost peaceful and held air superiority, it failed to seize Assab. It’s hard to believe that Abiy Ahmed and the military brass around him could ignore the huge risk of engaging in such an ill-fated adventure.
https://googleads.g.doubleclick.net/pagead/ads?gdpr=0&us_privacy=1—&gpp_sid=-1&client=ca-pub-3273908333816206&output=html&h=280&adk=3343016698&adf=2412510333&w=780&fwrn=4&fwrnh=100&lmt=1759235869&num_ads=1&rafmt=1&armr=3&sem=mc&pwprc=2662236072&ad_type=text_image&format=780×280&url=https%3A%2F%2Faddisstandard.com%2Fopinion-why-war-in-northern-ethiopia-and-eritrea-is-unlikely-for-now%2F&fwr=0&pra=3&rh=195&rw=779&rpe=1&resp_fmts=3&wgl=1&fa=27&uach=WyJXaW5kb3dzIiwiMTkuMC4wIiwieDg2IiwiIiwiMTQwLjAuNzMzOS4xMjgiLG51bGwsMCxudWxsLCI2NCIsW1siQ2hyb21pdW0iLCIxNDAuMC43MzM5LjEyOCJdLFsiTm90PUE_QnJhbmQiLCIyNC4wLjAuMCJdLFsiR29vZ2xlIENocm9tZSIsIjE0MC4wLjczMzkuMTI4Il1dLDBd&abgtt=9&dt=1759235869017&bpp=1&bdt=6409&idt=-M&shv=r20250929&mjsv=m202509230101&ptt=9&saldr=aa&abxe=1&cookie=ID%3De5d99796b937492c%3AT%3D1755180686%3ART%3D1759230276%3AS%3DALNI_MZhPSCyjsUOT_hz7PdcNoAoqYZlMQ&gpic=UID%3D0000125303f9575e%3AT%3D1755180686%3ART%3D1759230276%3AS%3DALNI_MbXIih-xn-246_IkcAyKerUub4mcw&eo_id_str=ID%3Df98a762fce1dc8b5%3AT%3D1755180686%3ART%3D1759230276%3AS%3DAA-Afja3nzlD-ZnXNR0Ylkt_MYUl&prev_fmts=0x0%2C780x280&nras=3&correlator=1650869900834&frm=20&pv=1&u_tz=180&u_his=1&u_h=720&u_w=1280&u_ah=672&u_aw=1280&u_cd=24&u_sd=1.5&dmc=8&adx=47&ady=1898&biw=1265&bih=551&scr_x=0&scr_y=0&eid=42532242%2C95372194%2C95344789&oid=2&pvsid=8177116028221896&tmod=823997544&uas=0&nvt=1&fc=384&brdim=0%2C0%2C0%2C0%2C1280%2C0%2C1280%2C672%2C1280%2C551&vis=1&rsz=%7C%7Cs%7C&abl=NS&cms=2&fu=128&bc=31&bz=1&td=1&tdf=2&psd=W251bGwsbnVsbCxudWxsLDFd&nt=1&pgls=CAEaBTYuOC4y&ifi=4&uci=a!4&btvi=2&fsb=1&dtd=628
Meanwhile, the Tigray leadership, often portrayed as a potential spoiler, is neither positioned nor incentivized to start a new war. If, as critics claim, those in power in Mekelle are driven by self-interest and economic survival, war would only sabotage that opportunity. For sure, thanks to the wars, members of the Tigray’s elite, and their counterparts in Oromya and Amhara region, gain fabulous profits through predation in “fiefdoms” they forcibly rule. But this would remain profitable only with a minimum of communication between them. War would cause such chaos that this would no longer be the case. Read more…